science

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

25%

$313.7K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

12%

$202.3K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Crypto

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

2%

$196.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

10%

$146.1K Vol.Ends Mar 31, 2027

Politics

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

10%

$102.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

September 301%

December 314%

$99.4K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by...?

June 30, 2027?88%

March 31, 202747%

$40.6K Vol.Jun 30, 2027

Science

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

4%

$23.7K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

10%

$13.3K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SSpaceX61%

OOpenAI39%

$12.0K Vol.Dec 31, 2027

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

9%

$11.6K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

172%

222%

$10.1K Vol.Dec 31, 2026

Science

100kt meteor strike in 2026?

4%

$9.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

December 31, 20265%

December 31, 202716%

$7.2K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

September 3089%

October 3197%

7 more

$3.8K Vol.Jul 1, 2027

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

DDecember 31, 20267%

DDecember 31, 202733%

1 more

$3.6K Vol.Jan 1, 2029

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

<75mm54%

75-100mm7%

$3.0K Vol.Oct 1, 2026

FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by...?

December 31, 202758%

June 30, 202728%

1 more

$2.7K Vol.Dec 31, 2027

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

3%

$2.5K Vol.Ends Dec 31, 2026

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX41%

OpenAI2%

10 more

$2.2K Vol.Dec 31, 2026

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3.5k99%

↑4.5k89%

$2.2K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 20267%

December 31, 202621%

$2.0K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

October 3142%

December 3143%

$1.9K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?

<275mm45%

275-300mm16%

8 more

$1.3K Vol.Oct 1, 2026

World

New pandemic in 2026?

7%

$1.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

June 30, 202753%

December 31, 202765%

1 more

$1.2K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Science

New pandemic before 2028?

17%

$1.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2028

Culture

Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?

96%

$1.1K Vol.Ends Oct 1, 2026

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

66%

$886 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2028

Precipitation in London in September?

<30mm22%

30-40mm31%

5 more

$836 Vol.Oct 1, 2026

Politics

Trump Space Academy begins training by June 30, 2027?

13%

$686 Vol.Ends Jul 1, 2027

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

5%

$660 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 3156%

December 3162%

$609 Vol.-

Finance

Merck & Moderna merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

1%

$425 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

FFewer than 2012%

220 to 3453%

2 more

$384 Vol.Mar 31, 2027

How many SpaceX launches in September 2026?

<1275%

1224%

3 more

$356 Vol.Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in Seattle in September?

<1"50%

1-1.5"10%

5 more

$301 Vol.Oct 1, 2026

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"12%

2-3"30%

$288 Vol.Oct 2, 2026

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

7%

$225 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?

3200+99%

3500+89%

2 more

$179 Vol.Oct 1, 2026

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

080%

117%

$118 Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

SSeptember 30, 20268%

OOctober 31, 202648%

$74 Vol.Nov 1, 2026

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<549%

5-644%

$71 Vol.Jan 1, 2027

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

100-1190%

120-1396%

$54 Vol.Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

43%

$43 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Human moon landing in 2026?

1%

$32 Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

<9501%

950–9990%