For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
24H VOLUME
$225
LIQUIDITY
$225
BALANCE
$0
Comments (10)
Bugblatter May 18
Yes, plus el niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation and this year's is likely to be strongest since 1877. Yes is overvalued.
marco62 Mar 24
Hope No
Payna Mar 11
Helene in 2024 proved that 'major' status is now a baseline risk
moistcookie Jan 6
why do negative pnls have the most to say
Relaccsed Jan 2
In the last 20 years, there have only been 5 category 4 hurricanes.. That’d put the odds for this year around 25% - YES. For the last 80 years, the long term average is actually only 22%!
Relaccsed Jan 2
Seems pretty overvalued.
Relaccsed Jan 2
Only cat 4.
i2dt Dec 31
They actually just added a cat 5 market, so this looks more confident this is only cat 4
NeoVanguard Dec 31
According to rules, it is only 4. But don't be surprised if scammers here manipulate it to include 5 too.
PortnoyAndHodge Dec 30
So only 4, not 4 and above?
