This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Apple.
24H VOLUME
$803
LIQUIDITY
$803
BALANCE
$0
Comments (31)
unaHermana Jul 27
It'll count as whatever the resolver decides it as
whatisluv Jul 15
Wait, just quick question. So if a product like lets say “HomePod” its introduce as “reinvented” and with a whole new name and look and interaction, (replacing it) like lets say AI-POD or whatever. Will this count as YES or NO ??
molodoyy Jul 9
What are the arguments of YES holders?
coin-tr Mar 24
depends if it is released under the "iPhone" umbrella. Macbook Pro and Macbook Air are different lineups, if it's iPhone Fold then consider that a win, but if it's the next iPhone Pro, then consider that a loss.
0x4db22661508A334469B6AE035543bdB31be7448A-1771985677216 Mar 5
Apple isn’t going to spend 17 years building the most valuable phone brand on earth just to release a foldable and say ‘actually this isn’t an iPhone anymore.’ If it folds, it’s almost certainly still an iPhone. A new hinge doesn’t suddenly create a new product category.
0xffA25A79383FF333Ac1E471cFb0335EC15DcfB33-1767801314751 Feb 25
yup the answer is no, nothing new coming out this year, this is free money
KrakenTrader Feb 24
A HomePod with a display is not a new product category — it’s still a HomePod iteration. The market requires a genuinely new product line Apple has never sold before. Most credible reporting points to robots, AI wearables, or other truly new hardware targeting 2027, not 2026. A display upgrade doesn’t qualify, and the real “new category” products are likely beyond the deadline. At current pricing, this looks materially overvalued.
JohnJohnson67 Feb 24
If the “iFold” is marketed as something other than a phone, it would be a new line. If it has a tablet face, it would obviously be a new product like. If you’re making your financial decisions based on this false assumption- I’d cut your losses now. You’re not correct.
micemeat67 Feb 20
Home security hardware.
0x7438a018970B6c3Ea5f08d62Dfe5eC47D01A2aA3-1769565852504 Feb 19
Fully agree, I buy NO shares on prediction at 80%, and I absolutely don’t know what people await. Maybe Apple Car, or iVacuumCleaner Pro Max with M5 Ultra and apple intelligence😂.
molodoyy Feb 18
dont tell them alpha, they are doomed
F161803398 Feb 18
Let's actually read the market conditions properly. The key phrase here is "a category of products Apple has not previously sold" - not just a new product. A budget MacBook is a laptop. Apple has been selling laptops since 2006. On Apple's website, it will be in the exact same Mac/MacBook category that already exists. It's just a cheaper version of an existing product, the same way iPhone SE isn't a new product line but just a budget iPhone. A new HomePod with improvements, additional speakers, or a screen and etc is still the same smart speaker/hub. Apple has been selling HomePod for years now. Adding a screen doesn't create a new product line, it's an update to the existing HomePod line. By that logic, would every new iPhone with a better camera or an extra lens also be a new product line? By your logic, would a MacBook Pro with M5 Pro chip also count as a new product line? That's absurd. The conditions clearly state: robot, gaming console - these are examples of new product lines. These are products that Apple has never made before. And a foldable iPhone is even more obviously still just an iPhone. Changing the form factor doesn't create a new product line. Read the conditions correctly. A new product line is not the same as a new model within an existing product line!
psionicstorm Feb 18
A budget macbook would be a new product line, it caters to a different demographic. Also, the homepod is supposed to be released this year based on reliable sources.
KrakenTrader Feb 18
Feels like this is being priced on hype rather than the actual rules. A foldable iPhone is still an iPhone — that doesn’t qualify as a new product line here. The market requires a brand-new category, announced (and effectively launched) before end of 2026. Apple doesn’t introduce entirely new categories casually. 50%+ odds seems rich given the bar is much higher than people think.
JohnJohnson67 Feb 17
Not if they sell it as an “IFold” or something
JohnJohnson67 Feb 17
it probably would count as a new product line, consider selling if that’s how you think it works
JohnJohnson67 Feb 17
Too ambiguous. Does the “iFold” count? Or is that an iteration of the phone?
iutwpfal Feb 17
blowback
theta-thunberg Feb 17
what is going on in here
iForgor Feb 17
Trifold? Womp womp?
iutwpfal Feb 17
???
molodoyy Feb 4
buy more YES. HomePad will be release soon and you win!
luthfi Feb 4
Okay
0xffA25A79383FF333Ac1E471cFb0335EC15DcfB33-1767801314751 Feb 2
No. It’s still an iPhone
luthfi Feb 1
A foldable phone counted as yes or no?
0xffA25A79383FF333Ac1E471cFb0335EC15DcfB33-1767801314751 Jan 19
Fold iphone doesn't count as a new product line
whymanyncraterc Jan 10
zhe shi shen me yi si?
iForgor Jan 7
the tri-fold will be kinda cool to see
Soloman Jan 6
i ra y
Curme Jan 4
Without Steve Jobs, it feels like there's no "one more thing" moment left on my annual to-do list.
IMMAJET Jan 1
its happening
