On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Comments (50)
Brovadana Sep 5
O
polmar001 Sep 5
flip the flip. wtf is this
MrBauer Sep 5
lol now they just confirmed that it's not available to all users, for some plus and business users its officially unavailable
0x3ddCFEFb884AAe1A475F31E615136EDa38b798c7-1779821000308 Sep 4
No way bro
divineth Sep 4
this is the end...
0x3ddCFEFb884AAe1A475F31E615136EDa38b798c7-1779821000308 Sep 4
dang you got cooked
LEGENDARY101 Sep 4
Are we flipping this or what
0x3ddCFEFb884AAe1A475F31E615136EDa38b798c7-1779821000308 Sep 4
dang you got coocked
MrBauer Sep 4
Okay, that was a nice ride :)
Tremendous-Dinnerplate Sep 4
the general public can buy a Pro account
SecretSauce1999 Sep 4
yeah i dont have it and i pay 125 usd per month this is robbery
0x2722ea534c7EF9AA0ba4aE5B076bDf1E6D73ECBF-1770100933088 Sep 4
easy money
0x3ddCFEFb884AAe1A475F31E615136EDa38b798c7-1779821000308 Sep 4
the issue on plimartket is that when theres a bit of confusion in the results its the one that pays more that wins and thats kinda sad
0x3ddCFEFb884AAe1A475F31E615136EDa38b798c7-1779821000308 Sep 4
would make sense
himeee Sep 4
Dude Im just tired rn ,this is blatant robbery
0x14Ec8218E788d5F7E8c90437C0bdeF1568B6C745-1776542696682 Sep 4
OpenAI’s latest official post says Astra is available to all Pro, Enterprise and Business Premium users, but Plus and regular Business rollout starts next and may take a few days. So it still doesn’t appear to meet the rules’ “general public” requirement for September 4.
0x3ddCFEFb884AAe1A475F31E615136EDa38b798c7-1779821000308 Sep 4
yeah were cooked
0x3ddCFEFb884AAe1A475F31E615136EDa38b798c7-1779821000308 Sep 4
"The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public."
SecretSauce1999 Sep 4
last time there was something similiar with grok 4.20, but this is a blatant No just saying the grok 4.20 fiasco on polymarket was indeed horrible for the prediction market scene but this one is more straight forward i dont have chatgpt astra available.
0xF75629013161D07Aa75ADcD67655dC8AfB29f69f-1779317649264 Sep 4
scotty bought alot of yes, check his activity
0xF75629013161D07Aa75ADcD67655dC8AfB29f69f-1779317649264 Sep 4
The rules say a beta or open rolling waitlist signups does qualify. Therefore the rules have already adressed this: an incomplete, in-progress state can satisfy this market.
Rex416 Sep 4
Dispute it
himeee Sep 4
They just announced
0x14Ec8218E788d5F7E8c90437C0bdeF1568B6C745-1776542696682 Sep 4
As of now, OpenAI has not announced that Astra is available to the general public. They have announced a gradual rollout, with broader availability coming over the next few days. The market rules are also pretty clear: for this to resolve YES, the model must be publicly accessible to the general public. A limited rollout or access to specific accounts does not satisfy that requirement. The rules also state that OpenAI’s official information is the primary source for resolution. So unless OpenAI officially announces/makes Astra publicly accessible under those conditions, one Pro user having access through Codex alone should not qualify.
0xF75629013161D07Aa75ADcD67655dC8AfB29f69f-1779317649264 Sep 4
According to Opus this market should resolve to yes. "Ordinary Pro → Astra in Codex, working, before 11:59pm ET → Sep 4 flips to Yes" Just take the L and move on.
IAMPUMBA Sep 4
in scotty we trust
Incredible-Bamboo Sep 4
Tibo posted about it.
yesworld28 Sep 4
I don't have a deposit of 750 udc (
IAMPEPPER Sep 4
can you Dispute ?
yesworld28 Sep 4
@ScottyNooo You need to start a dispute, the platform did not provide public access.
0xF75629013161D07Aa75ADcD67655dC8AfB29f69f-1779317649264 Sep 4
only the model card so far.
0xF75629013161D07Aa75ADcD67655dC8AfB29f69f-1779317649264 Sep 4
it's rolling out and the day hasn't finished yet. let's take the L and stop our losses. let this one resolve but i think it should be a lesson for some.
himeee Sep 4
It’s only on codex bro wtf ,plus they’ve not announced it’s available ,it’s only on coming days
bigoter Sep 4
GPT-6 Astra is Available on OpenRouter
IAMPEPPER Sep 4
Availability GPT‑6 Astra is rolling out today to a limited set of organizations and over the coming days will become available to all ChatGPT Plus, Pro, Business, and Enterprise users
StupidMonkeyyy Sep 4
What if OpenAI does not announce? Straight to 0 one more time? DD
Jamaica69 Sep 4
Still not available to general public
Linslav Sep 4
welp, its not working gets stuck thinking, they may cancel this lol
Waterfall Sep 4
OAI cooked me hard this week, what a stupid launch that was. Ggwp to those who ate
abhionpoly Sep 4
shirty shirty bonds
avaaweb3 Sep 4
this market cooked both yes and no holder
Linslav Sep 4
I already have astra, ggs
Wintermaul Sep 4
also "a consensus of credible reporting will also be used." is not by posts on X.
Wintermaul Sep 4
its not "The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public."
HowToBasic Sep 4
Dios777 sad guy
joesheep Sep 4
Moreover, OAI is offering a banked reset everyday Astra is not released, this puts a lot of pression on them
joesheep Sep 4
thx for precision, looked for it and this was indeed on X (you never know with all the slop on this site)
Luffy-is-king-of-pirates Sep 4
"i am hopeful that you can use it this weekend! but can't promise yet."
joesheep Sep 4
he didnt say so.
Luffy-is-king-of-pirates Sep 4
why are the odds so low for sep 5th and 6th, sam said it would probably be available before monday
