This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$127.0K
LIQUIDITY
$127.0K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (32)
abdoohl 39m ago
anyway im switching to NO im think they might attack VERY SOON MAYBE IN CUMING DAYS!
abdoohl 40m ago
Why isnt nobody posting in this chat? this should be biggest market on PM n chat should be thriving!
abdoohl 45m ago
NEW: Iran’s Foreign Ministry says it does not care that Peru suspended diplomatic relations with Iran, calling the decision ‘inconsequential’ and stating that there was no diplomatic relationship anyway
5V70KeQJu293BWbv 2h ago
NoSteinNoGate has a $1,041.95 position on September 11 with outcome Yes. They're already up $31.18 on this trade through holding their position. When someone's betting big and winning, it's worth paying attention.
abdoohl 15h ago
lets see you bet then instead of whining
nosaben26 16h ago
OMG $-$
abdoohl 18h ago
Im gonna eat you bitches alive. Its over.
Car 20h ago
PEACE
abdoohl 23h ago
The families of the US service personnel killed in the pedophile Trump regime's war of aggression on Iran, will receive ZERO compensation. This because the Pentagon says that it's not a real war.
12beduins Sep 6
If Trump does something stupid they gonna sink his carrier strike group, its over for Trump they literally torpedoed his career. He shouldve never have made home videos with his ###ish pimp, thats ALWAYS a big mistake, HUGH mistake!
abdoohl Sep 5
Hes not have balls man, fuck around with them iranians OMT and hes gonna get BURNED!
Analista. Sep 5
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date.
Unfinished-July Sep 5
"Trump says US may hit Iran's Pickaxe Mountain soon" reuters . com/world/trump-says-us-may-hit-irans-pickaxe-mountain-soon-2026-09-04/
Konfucious Sep 5
The 14 days start from each of the dates above, so 4th - 18th and so on.
StonedMartin Sep 5
14 days are not calculated from the specified date, they are calculated from the day attack accured.
StonedMartin Sep 5
There already was an attack, Sep 1, 14 days started on Sep 2, which makes days 4,8 and 11 resolving to no, because there WAS an attack
StevAplaty Sep 5
Yeah, that is the market.. if there is no attack for the next 2 weeks this resolves to yes..
StonedMartin Sep 5
Strikes happened on September 1, it is impossible to have a 14 day period until atleast September 15.
ithinkthisisgod Sep 5
quant
StevAplaty Sep 5
Nah, it will run for the next 2 week if there is no qualifying strike.
iguessbro Sep 5
mine mine mine
StonedMartin Sep 5
Shouldn't September 4 be resolved already?
hyper-liquid-xyz Sep 4
Hormuz Report X: Iran has launched a SURPRISE BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK on U.S. bases in Jordan, activating air defenses across the country as sirens sound and explosions are reported. This is Iran's 3rd attack in a row without US response.
12beduins Sep 3
TAFO! Trump Always Finds Out!!!!
abdoohl Sep 3
its working again! 🔥 🔥 🔥
abdoohl Sep 3
I dont understand why this happening to me??
abdoohl Sep 3
My trading doesnt work its just horrible!
abdoohl Sep 3
TATO! Trump Always Tacos Out! TATO TATO TATO!!!
jinwujinshu Sep 3
shit
12beduins Sep 2
Trumps gonna TACO most likely!!
12beduins Sep 2
Then he absolutely thrashes Tucker n Vance, just runs them over and hold their heads down the toilet almost literally [Fire][Fire][Fire]
12beduins Sep 2
Latest Nick Fuentes explain what an absolute failure lowlife scum Trump is for letting the #### force him to attack Iran! [Fire]
