This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$295.8K
LIQUIDITY
$295.8K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
Car 14h ago
WAR
GAMBLEMAX 20h ago
Largest surprise, military-wide readiness exercise since October 7th massacre involving the entire IDF: IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir launched a surprise, military-wide readiness exercise involving the entire IDF- from the Air Force and special forces to the General Staff. The timing, just before the Jewish holidays. IDF's Zamir has made it clear: readiness for a surprise attack a top priority.
abdoohl 23h ago
Netanyahu: ‘We warn Iran; if it attacks Israel, it will receive unimaginable blows’
5038813185 Sep 5
Aug 31 is already over. 🤡🤡 However there is always a chance, with CNN claiming Iran missiles at US ships recently and Jewish holidays coming up soon. US would want to TACO but Iran likely won't let them.
yungsoleimani Sep 4
sorry not sorry man
yungsoleimani Sep 3
yopp
Konfucious Sep 3
Mate literally just read the entire rules section, and look when the market was created. Also dont use AI só much, it’s wrong often.
12beduins Sep 3
🤡 🤡 🤡
12beduins Sep 3
🤡
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-1764226192402 Sep 3
This dispute concerns the Polymarket market “Israel × Iran ceasefire continues through…”, which is priced at 100% YES as of August 31. This does not match the rules or the verified events. The ceasefire ends if either Israel or Iran conducts a qualifying military action. Qualifying actions include air strikes and surface‑to‑surface missile launches, and the rules clearly state that interception does not matter — the launch itself qualifies. These qualifying actions already happened after market creation: • March 18, 2026 – Iran → Israel: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. Ballistic missiles are explicitly defined as qualifying surface‑to‑surface missile strikes. • March 22–27, 2026 – Israel → Iran: Israel carried out multiple airstrikes inside Iran, including strikes in Tehran and at a uranium facility in Yazd. Airstrikes are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions. Both governments confirmed these events, and they were consistently reported by credible outlets such as Reuters, AP, BBC, and Al Jazeera. Since qualifying actions occurred from both sides, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Therefore, the market cannot resolve to YES and must resolve to NO under the stated rules.
52centis Sep 3
Could you please tell me what date these mutual launches were? Are there any news links?
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-1764226192402 Sep 3
It does not make sense for this market to be priced at 100% YES on August 31st. According to the market rules, even a single qualifying military action between Israel and Iran ends the ceasefire and forces a NO resolution. Both countries have already carried out qualifying actions: Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, and Israel conducted airstrikes inside Iran. These events are confirmed by both governments and credible news sources. Because qualifying actions have clearly occurred, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. A 100% YES price therefore does not reflect the rules or the documented events. It is likely caused by traders misunderstanding the rules or assuming intercepted missiles do not count, even though the rules explicitly state that the launch itself qualifies. Conclusion: The current 100% YES pricing is not aligned with the market rules. Under those rules, the market should resolve to NO.
0xD9B9de38B5Af0367F350b0f24AD5F48404e903B8-1764226192402 Sep 3
Based on the market rules and verified events, this market should resolve to NO. A qualifying military action has already occurred between Israel and Iran after the market’s creation, which ends the ceasefire. Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory. Ballistic missiles are explicitly defined as surface‑to‑surface missile strikes. Even if intercepted, the launch itself qualifies because it was directly aimed at Israel. Israel also carried out airstrikes inside Iran. Airstrikes are explicitly listed as qualifying military actions, and these strikes impacted Iranian territory. Both governments and multiple credible outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirmed these events. The rules state that the ceasefire ends if either country conducts a qualifying military action. Since qualifying actions occurred from both sides, the ceasefire is no longer in effect. Conclusion: The conditions for a YES resolution are not met. The market should resolve to NO.
cerco Sep 2
BREAKING: Netanyahu says Israel is working to bring down the Iranian regime and could attack Iran at any moment.
Tangovicious Sep 2
Regarding if august 31 is yes or no?
fudc Sep 2
The details are under review.
cerco Sep 2
IDF: Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago regarding a hostile aircraft infiltration in several areas in northern Israel, interceptors were launched toward a suspicious aerial target that likely crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory. The interception results are under review. No injuries were reported. Missile and rocket alerts were activated due to the interception attempts.
cerco Sep 2
IDF: Initial report - Sirens regarding a hostile aircraft infiltration were sounded in the area of Kfar Yuval. The details are under review.
pink.impala Sep 1
The Russian people stand in solidarity with Iranians as they defend their interests - President Vladimir Putin
Tangovicious Sep 1
Don't bother, you can't reason with low-IQ antisemites.
0x0D20e0aB6b1a817c9e6Db622A0fa2B45ef0930EA-1768520567855 Sep 1
What???
12beduins Aug 31
If the nazis had been antisemites the holocaust would have never happened, let that sink in!
Shilu45 Aug 31
Yes like US Iran you got rigged today 🤣🤣😅
Shilu45 Aug 31
Dump 🤡🤡
0x4C6A68AD49C44da012c760893267EEcB135997BE-1775679106556 Aug 31
YES
SIMOMEGA Aug 31
not that i disagree with you but why do u still have positions if so?
Tangovicious Aug 31
Hopefully the nos will get lots of great wins today.
merlini Aug 31
No wins today?
ibm322 Aug 31
of course!Like the june 15 agreed peace deal that is definetly not a scam!Polymarket is a scam ppl
Car Aug 31
Peace
0xLuck Aug 30
i knew it and now i can smell it , Yes the ceasefire will soon be broken
alpaje Aug 30
I missed the usa one please let this be no too god
filaretou Aug 30
Lets go 🍻
yungsoleimani Aug 30
yopp
pink.impala Aug 30
IRGC just said they gonna retaliate on US tankers parked at Ben-Gurion 🔥 🔥 🔥
Homeless-the-grey Aug 30
Bla bla bla bla bla bla
Shilu45 Aug 30
US launched missile on Iran's larak island
adasol Aug 30
BREAKING: Israel is again reportedly preparing to attack Iran amid the Trump administration trying to find an off-ramp — with Energy Minister Eli Cohen declaring that Tel Aviv will not be bound by any Washington-Tehran agreement, per Israeli media. With conventional military options exhausted and diplomacy collapsing, the next battlefield is clear: energy infrastructure on both sides — in Israel and Iran. Iran has already proven its capability to strike Gulf oil and gas facilities. An Israeli unilateral strike guarantees a massive Iranian retaliation against the region's energy grid, while Israel's own energy assets remain vulnerable to direct attacks.
pink.impala Aug 29
que bono..? mi no hablo!
RealRonnieTyler Aug 29
Considering you don't know me, it's obvious that you don't know wtf projection even means. Still you insist on dabbling in geopolitics 🙂↔️ I'm actually being real with you both. Can you please just do a quality control once a year on the bundle of opinions you've been presented by "the movement". Not for me. For you. And ask yourselves: Cui bono? Who benefit so much from you guys being loud and rude about Palestine? Who organizes that shit in hundreds of cities and campuses? Why are the placards and narratives identical? How much are local protest organizers paid and by whom? I know you'll miss the point and say "what about Palestine?", but maybe eventually it'll stick. That's all. Now, have a great fucking day and fuck the fuck off 😃
bananavomBa717 Aug 27
omg...
pink.impala Aug 26
ive read many of your comments man, your really projecting A LOT!!
RealRonnieTyler Aug 23
😳 I think you mean "Iran is commiting mass murder and genocide while the west does NOTHING". Are you familiar with Yuri Bezmenov and his talk about "soft heads". This is highly recommended to anyone trying to understand our world today. Also, can I ask if you sometimes actively look up news sources that doesn't confirm your view, with the intention of challenging your beliefs? (And not to rage.) Do you spend time with any friends who's not online and who doesn't dedicate most of their time / spare time to the Free Palestine- thing?
RealRonnieTyler Aug 23
How very cute of him. Fanboying IRGC is really cute for you too. Such a great look. Nothing fucked up about promoting IRGC's call to action against genocide in 2026. Don't let anyone tell you that! This is a great path you're on!
adasol Aug 23
BREAKING: Iran warns it "will respond with an earthquake-like retaliation" in response to Trump's economic warfare Iran says it has "so far only targeted military bases" and has not attacked any US economic interests, but "if they choose to escalate to an economic war, we are prepared to target all American oil and economic companies in the region."
12beduins Aug 23
Iran standing up against mass murder and genocide while the west does NOTHING
12beduins Aug 23
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi calls on London and Paris to stop hiding behind “expressions of concern” and take concrete action, including halting arms transfers to Israel, banning trade with settlements, and implementing the decisions of the Hague court.
12beduins Aug 22
The Essence of Israeli Hasbara 📍Zionist politician Eli Hazan: ❗️We must flood social media with fake news to protect Israel. The truth no longer matters.
Lowtaperfade Aug 19
Because war is so popular you halfwit
Shilu45 Aug 17
Before Election Isreal will Attack Iran for voter turnout 💣💶
