On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
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Comments (50)
5V70KeQJu293BWbv 2h ago
carlos484 holds $84,249.92 on September 30 outcome No. Unrealized profit: $9,164.14. They turned $75,085.77 into over $84,249.92.
0xbF4d202382 3h ago
Lifting the blockade must be linked to the nuclear roadmap; otherwise, how can Trump's most important goal be achieved?
NoSteinNoGate 8h ago
It will never be resolved but at some point the blockade will be lifted
0xbF4d202382 13h ago
If Iran publishes its shipping route map, the US will lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. What will the US gain?
0xbF4d202382 13h ago
How could escalating tensions lead to lifting the strait blockade? What kind of logic is that?
0xbF4d202382 13h ago
If the United States lifts the blockade, how will the nuclear issue be resolved?
RUMBLED 16h ago
The logical decision is for the United States to just withdraw and take the L. The problem is that the president is an 80 year narccisist who has an overwhelming need to always been seen as a winner. The only argument I see for an Sept. 30th resolution of Yes is if he's doing it to manipulate oil markets and is lying about withdrawing which actually makes this risky since the way the bet is worded only asks that an announcement is made, not neccesarily carried out.
adasol 18h ago
Iran and Oman to sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in coming days: Rezaei We have more from Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s top security official. “The new international corridor that Iran manages has been determined with the Omani brothers and will be announced in the coming days,” Rezaei said, according to state media.
AlexxHamilton 21h ago
GN mates .
conotocaurius 21h ago
Haven't changed my opinion. We're in the middle of a major escalation cycle. Either the US will lose a ship or the Israelis will cry uncle after about a week or so of bombing back and forth. The idea that Israel has suddenly learnt restraint and that's why it isn't attacking Iran isn't credible. They are scared of Iran's firepower and the lack of US interceptors. It's not out of the question the blockade is over by September 30th, basically 50/50.
RUMBLED Sep 6
He's a demented 80 year old that shits himself. That could be the explanation right there.
Archeroon Sep 5
19 hrs now
Archeroon Sep 5
Trump has kept silence on his social media forever almost 15 hrs now
Car Sep 5
peace
adasol Sep 3
the technical issue in the last few days is terrible .....
dizl Sep 3
Guys, the jig is up, sell your no shares. Hegseth just pinged everyone in my WoW guild server saying Trump's converting to shia islam and lifting the blockade after mr Mojtaba gave him a golden Quran.
AlexxHamilton Sep 3
good to see you accept abdolah 🤣
abdoohl Sep 3
Its over Syria is gonna do it instead Hormuz be closed forever
abdoohl Sep 3
President Trump via Truth Social: This is GREAT! Syria is pitching itself as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.
Archeroon Sep 3
Privately, Trump is having discussions with senior aides about whether to declare the Iran war over, U.S. officials said, noting Trump has said he favors the idea. WSJ
doyouwanttogotothemoon Sep 2
China called…
Archeroon Sep 2
China stepped in, Xi told the US to gtfo from Hormuz in Cairo and told Iran to stop their fantasies about tolls
0x0ae18c5Fd72ea0C7530efebFA8b577E7C913e3A4-1773126452670 Sep 2
31 october
pohaiysa Sep 2
hey
conotocaurius Sep 1
Possibly September 30 is back in play even
conotocaurius Sep 1
This escalation is great. Last roll of the dice. Trump just didn't have the temperament to even attempt the patient option with the blockade.
abdoohl Sep 1
TACO means Trump always folds under pressure, its gonna be cruel punishment for Trump!!!
abdoohl Sep 1
IRGC Spokesman: ‘A severe punishment awaits the aggressors. America will come to regret its most recent attacks.’
yungsoleimani Sep 1
BREAKING: OTF (Only The Family) has claimed it now is fighting on the side of Iran and its reasoning for this is that they deem Shia Islam and sunni Chiraqology as brotherly religions.
yungsoleimani Sep 1
BREAKING: Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a fierce warning towards the United States and Trump in particular, it is as followed: If you do not pardon Lil Durk in the coming 24 hours we will bring hell to mainland USA.
NoSteinNoGate Sep 1
Correction: They threw Trump, massive explosion
adasol Sep 1
US carries out strikes in Bandar Abbas and around Strait of Hormuz - reports The United States carried out “precise defensive strikes” on sites in Iran’s southern port city of Bandar Abbas, Al Arabiya reported citing a US official. Axios also quoted US officials as saying the US air force is striking targets around the Strait of Hormuz
yungsoleimani Sep 1
BREAKING: The US has used what seems to be a tactical nuke on Bandar Abbas, Iran! @Middle_East_Spectator
neubeckerclarisse Sep 1
at least this year please
hyper-liquid-xyz Sep 1
Immediately after Secretary of the Army Driscoll’s resignation, Deputy Under Secretary of the Army Dave Fitzgerald is expected to resign this week, per The Hill. Without US military we see US likely to pull out and TACO in surrender.
MARV-1 Aug 31
hello
AlexxHamilton Aug 31
Guys Abdollah in in very bad loss , pray for him 🤣
abdoohl Aug 31
Trumps gonna open blockade very soon or hes gettin further punished, eat it AlexxGayton!!!
abdoohl Aug 31
"Punishing the Aggressors" is just kick ass awesome name of operatuon 🔥 🔥
abdoohl Aug 31
IRGC: Just minutes ago, fighters from the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in response to the aerial aggression launched by the American and Zionist enemy against the "Lark" island, carried out an operation called "Punishing the Aggressors" through a joint missile and drone operation under the name "Ya Muhammad ibn Abdullah (PBUH)," destroying the technical and repair infrastructure, and the bases of enemy aircraft at two American airbases, "King Hussein" and "Al-Azraq" in Jordan, using ballistic missiles, causing significant damage.
AlexxHamilton Aug 31
don't cry abdullah 🤣
TESTENAOMEXA Aug 31
Victory against what, goy?
adasol Aug 30
hope you have more money to DCA. If I were you, I will not buy that much for now
Sainting Aug 30
OCT 31 Yes opinions ??
adasol Aug 30
Iran start retaliating ...
conotocaurius Aug 30
Yes. The more violence now the quicker it ends.
adasol Aug 30
Arre you sure? ;)))
GrokEnjoyer Aug 30
HAIL TRUMP; HAIL OUR PEOPLE; HAIL VICTORY!
conotocaurius Aug 30
Resumption of strikes is great for Oct and Dec Yes. The endgame of the war is going to play out over the course of September. The US absolutely cannot take the resumed hostilities for very long.
dPredictor Aug 30
bro is just trying to dump his shares. it is ok man, we all fuck up
