On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. A qualifying written diplomatic instrument must: (i) Be identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting; (ii) Establish at least one specific obligation limiting Iran's nuclear program through a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested, which may take the form of a defined limit, prohibition, or quantity (e.g., a specific cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, or an explicit commitment for Iran to surrender, destroy, or dilute its enriched uranium stockpile). Non-specific or vague restrictions, with no defined metric (e.g., a pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons, a commitment to maintain the status quo, or an agreement to abide IAEA monitoring or inspections requirements that do not specifically restrict Iran’s nuclear program) will not qualify. The content of the qualifying instrument must be expressed as an agreed obligation to be implemented. The following do not qualify: (i) a provision the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument; (ii) a provision explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation; (iii) a floor, placeholder, or minimum standard established explicitly for the purpose of structuring ongoing or future talks. A definite and unconditional obligation may qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the exact implementation date, timeframe, or sequencing, remain subject to future arrangements, provided that the obligation still establishes a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested. Conditional obligations do not qualify. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If such an inst
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Comments (50)
hyper-liquid-xyz Sep 1
Immediately after Secretary of the Army Driscoll’s resignation, Deputy Under Secretary of the Army Dave Fitzgerald is expected to resign this week, per The Hill.
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 25
PAKISTAN - US proposed cancellation of Operation Economic Outcast, with all sanction relief and blockade withdrawal in exchange of Iran reopening strait with optional fees and Iran stopping all proxy attacks. Iran still needs 350B reparations, Lebanon-Gaza ceasefire, US all troop withdrawal in bases to accept the deal.
abdoohl Aug 19
We live in a world where the only country to have ever used nuclear weapons attacks another nation—which has none and opposes them—because it might one day use a weapon it doesn’t even have, if it ever gets one! Let that sink in!
SIMOMEGA Aug 19
why dont u participate too?
SIMOMEGA Aug 19
🤣
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 18
WASHINGTON POST: The Trump administration is now weighing a reduction of US military presence in the Persian Gulf, evaluating a pullback of troops from the region where US bases have been "battered by months of Iranian strikes", from 8 US officials. US surrendering? Prospects of deal is imminent?
hyper-liquid-xyz Aug 10
Iran: You will pay all reparations, stop Israel-Hezbollah war, accept 5-7% tolls, withdraw from bases, give apology. In exchange we will call the tolls anti-woke. Trump: Great deal!
NoSteinNoGate Aug 3
Then buy short dated strikes
US-Phenom Aug 2
A deal is closer than we think ! DONALD J. TRUMP on Truth Social : This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
JuicyPusy Aug 2
Blasts heard in Markazi province, Israel F**ks up another peace deal, AGAIN💥💥💥
richsob Aug 2
BREAKING: Anti-aircraft artilleries activated in western tehran, 0630 local time
truthteller Aug 1
the final nuclear deal, darlings
ercknavarroo Jul 28
hola}
conotocaurius Jul 24
only a moron could think that a final nuclear deal will be agreed in 2026. I keep a chunk of money here as a nice safe bond
SIMOMEGA Jul 21
?
SIMOMEGA Jul 20
thank you, however i find unlikely a deal happening simply through allocation of funds, also US will keep denying anyway
ikkiy Jul 20
Hoh
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 17
X tweet in Hormuz Letter
SIMOMEGA Jul 16
source?
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 15
Maybe if the allocation is given then the deal will happen! Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
SIMOMEGA Jul 15
hormuz has way higher leverage on rest of the world than whatever the US is doing to Iran, they wont give up the strait so easily
0x802c27294BEd202eac837F7efA86E57116016120-1771513436209 Jul 15
let’s see
US-Phenom Jul 15
A prolonged blockade could force Iran back to the negotiating table. Its economy is already severely weakened by years of sanctions, high inflation, a rapidly depreciating currency and public finances under strain. If its main sources of foreign revenue were to be further reduced – particularly its energy exports – the regime would face an even more severe economic downturn. Under these circumstances, the financial and social pressure could become so great that Tehran would have no choice but to seek a diplomatic compromise in order to avoid a deeper economic collapse.
1stMM Jul 13
...and as many loopholes
KimMi Jul 13
The resolution criteria is longer than the agreement they'll sign.
0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 13
Take a hike scammers
sebaschann Jul 11
Hola
SIMOMEGA Jul 10
so why did u
gtfcc Jul 10
silly to bet on this
0x802c27294BEd202eac837F7efA86E57116016120-1771513436209 Jul 10
ok let’s see
0xBb886EB4De1C3c916fDFd0252f305620a8Fff91b-1771693794132 Jul 8
People never learn. In 1 and 1/2 months Trump will announce that the Iranians have finally agreed to a nuclear deal and then this will resolve yes and then the next day the Iranians will hit four tankers and Trump will threaten to nuke them
hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 8
Trump would give up major in concessions right prior to midterms, even if it is worse than the Obama deal.
Maygs Jul 8
wouldve bet normally
Zhora-B Jul 6
Ha-ha! Any more silly to bet on this? 😃
SIMOMEGA Jul 5
that means i need to bet the opposite of what i wouldve bet normally then, right?
JackStraw Jul 3
i'd be careful putting money on something like this. Polymarket isn't exactly reputable on its judgements and they leave themselves a lot of room to rule which ever way the liquidity provider needs to make a profit. You can only trust these swindlers if there is a single defined outcome on a single defined time.
tyui987645 Jul 3
Odds stay low for a final US-lran nuclear deal amid persistent mutual distrust and regional tensions
SIMOMEGA Jul 2
?
fghjk987 Jul 2
g m
Mission3 Jul 1
All No odds are high will wait and watch situation
Attentionguy Jul 1
Research Polymarket US x Iran Jun 15 resolution
SIMOMEGA Jun 30
Fars?
fort1k-kk Jun 30
where is my comment
fort1k-kk Jun 30
gg
deadinternettheory Jun 29
How long until they make a second permanent peace deal market? With exact same wording for the lulz
0x9e7c7F9263784B9680A0eF9fF5C37732FC3E59d4-1772866198998 Jun 28
I'm never betting on Polymarket again!!! I have no idea how the fuck such a dumb deal could have been enough for Polymarket to resolve it as YES!!!
hyper-liquid-xyz Jun 28
Iranian state media says it has now "no choice but to obtain the atomic bomb" to remove "the military option for the occupation and partitioning of Iran" from the table, arguing Iran must "absolutely reach nuclear deterrence" before current negotiations can be conducted "from a correct position," - Fars. 😮😮😮
Fungui Jun 28
This guy is a certified scammer
proliferation Jun 28
shouldn't you buy yes shares then dumbass?
shemsii Jun 28
a
