This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
24H VOLUME
$234.5K
LIQUIDITY
$234.5K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
abdoohl 31m ago
its about trading
SickandTired 32m ago
Yes we know that man but these yes holders are trying to scam. We must ask the Poly team to clarify in Discord
12beduins 54m ago
Good luck tryna argue the Yom-Kippir aerospace pause is being initiated on the 22e WHEN IT ALREADY HAS BEEN INITIATED PRIOR TO MARKET CREATION!!
RolandDrump 1h ago
just for adding that clown icon i can guarantee you'll get fuc*ed here. mark my words - you will pay. and when you do - please think of me taking your money ❤️
TheJewishHammer 1h ago
So..from day one it's a scam.
SickandTired 1h ago
exactly
cutbum 1h ago
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves.
cutbum 1h ago
“ Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves.” 🤡
ithinkthisisgod 1h ago
This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves.
ithinkthisisgod 1h ago
lets clap for the guy who reads market context that has 0 point in market which is also by ai he has not seen enough market yet
RolandDrump 1h ago
Important TIP: pre-scheduled religious/national events that happen every year are factored into the baseline and do not constitute an "initiation" of a major airspace closure resulting from the crisis
RolandDrump 1h ago
TO ALL THE *YES* HOLDERS: I urge you to read that little tab called "Market Context". You're welcome. Good Luck. it's not too late to sell.
5V70KeQJu293BWbv 2h ago
SmallFishInWhaleStomach has a $9,224.25 position on September 30 with outcome Yes. They're already up $1,264.83 on this trade through holding their position. When someone's betting big and winning, it's worth paying attention.
abdoohl 3h ago
ooh hater nosaben26 came up with its own comment! nice step in right direction!
abdoohl 3h ago
"Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify." And Yim Kippur is celebration when the ###s pray for bad weather conditions for the goyim n gentiles so its a NO, sorry assfaces!
nosaben26 3h ago
Well sheet🤒
Kingking178 4h ago
That reverses cause and effect. Commercial flights are not scheduled through the Tel Aviv FIR because Israel’s official AIP states that “all air traffic in Tel-Aviv FIR” is brought to a complete standstill and explicitly calls the period the “Tel-Aviv FIR closure for Yom Kippur.” An empty timetable is the operational consequence of a pre-published closure, not evidence that the airspace remains open.
Kingking178 4h ago
“Experimental AI-generated summary… This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves"
PA4EVER 4h ago
Long-standing UMA voters argue in the forums that Polymarket’s context rules explicitly cite the military conflict with Iran and Hezbollah as the driver of the bet. They maintain that if a shutdown occurs that is not triggered by an emergency order from civil aviation authorities due to the war, the oracle must rule "NO" to honor the contract's original intent.
TheJewishHammer 4h ago
You right. In that case, this market is scam from the beginning. It's not ok. They need to write, not includ yom kippor. Otherwise, it's scam from day 1
TheJewishHammer 4h ago
You right. In that case, this market was scam from the beginning. That's not ok
PA4EVER 4h ago
It is impossible for Yom Kippur to count as a "yes" when it existed *prior* to the creation of the market; clearly, this market aims to measure a new airspace closure caused by war, not by a religious holiday promised 3,000 years ago. There is also a precedent: in a previous Polymarket resolution—specifically for the market "Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?"—there was a debate regarding an event that had begun before the market was created. A group of traders attempted to argue that the event should count as a "YES" outcome. Polymarket subsequently issued a clarification, determining that an event initiated prior to the market's creation should not count. The price had surged dramatically based on that interpretation before the clarification settled the matter.
ithinkthisisgod 4h ago
Israeli airspace does close on Yom Kippur. Don't be fooled. credit : god
Tedlasso69 6h ago
Israel doesn’t close its airspace. There were just no scheduled flights in advance so it will be left empty.
Rex416 10h ago
No seems cheap why dont you buy more?
OnlyInGodWeTrust 10h ago
That’s why you sold all your positions lol nice try !
Bromley86 12h ago
Looks like 4 out of 5 people disagree with you, so if we're just worried about credibility . . .
0x94A980079eD7B56E44248Beb7D1d346dE3F4B550-1780135541912 12h ago
Can someone explain to me what this bet is about?
Rex416 16h ago
You betting on no airspace closure won’t bring peace to the Middle East. You and I have no control over what happens. I prefer to be on what will actually happen though vs what I hope will happen
OutcomeIsNo 17h ago
I'm trying to bring peace to the middle east and then people like you come
TheJewishHammer 19h ago
Some of the no Holders known as flippers.
Rex416 19h ago
Sorry for your loss.
MrMelonHead 21h ago
Yes, it's just that the initiation has already happened.
MrMelonHead 21h ago
There's enough money on no that it will be disputed
Mikelious 21h ago
Israeli airspace does not close on Yom Kippur. Don't be fooled.
TheJewishHammer 21h ago
לא הבנת. ינסו לפתור את המרקט שיהיה יום כיפור ואף אחד לא יעשה דיספיוט. היו כמה מרקטים כאלה שגנבו את התוצאה. לכן צריך להיזהר ולא לתת להם
OnlyInGodWeTrust 22h ago
בעזרת השם
OutcomeIsNo 22h ago
See? Humans can coexist with each other if they want
Rex416 22h ago
sorry for your loss
NatiImBackToU 23h ago
שינסו אחי, החוקים הם חוקים, אם זה נועד להיות לא זה יהיה לא.
0x5F971fDd5EDD57ddd097D1f7B6EA254A726265f4-1784893149895 23h ago
מה הכוונה?
abdoohl 23h ago
Anyway my ### friends they all say the same thing, that the planned and scheduled suspension of operation during Yum-Kippur is NOT constituting a proper airspace closure!
abdoohl 23h ago
The hammer is my good friend and ive got actually scores of other ### friends for example NOIZYUV and Roeman and they all respect me!
TheJewishHammer Sep 6
יש כאן מישהו שלא שומר יום כיפור? אל תתנו להם לפתור את המרקט. הם ינסו לפתור את המרקט ביום כיפור. מי שלא שומר חג, שלא ייתן לזה לקרות
PA4EVER Sep 6
Yom Kippur is not Israel initiating a new major closure; it is a scheduled annual suspension of operations. If it resolves with a "yes," then Polymarket will lose a lot of credibility.
TheJewishHammer Sep 6
Israel do not close her airspace, doring yom kippor. Every year they minimize the traffic. You can see it in flight radar. Cargo flight, do landed. If Israel will close, the israely transportation office, will announce. Don't try to resolve as yes, before the deadline. חג שמח ושנה טובה לעם ישראל ואוהביה
Alphinaud Sep 6
closure was scheduled before this market was created, it shouldn't count
JustAProfessor Sep 6
My claim is that shifting a tiny portion of my Israel contract capital to the Iran contracts does not equate to me not believing in the success of the Israel contract (as your original reply implied).
OnlyInGodWeTrust Sep 6
You actually shifted out of "Israel closes its airspace" — which by your own framing is "certain", essentially money sitting on the floor — and into "Iran closes its airspace" which may pay ~1000% but has no certainty attached to it whatsoever. I'm not going to argue the thesis itself. I'd just note that this doesn't back the implication of the post. It's rotating "safe money" into risky money, which is a different claim than the one you were making.
0x619DC40631C5f78606d17Ed1528d62898096B31C-1767915763461 Sep 6
Bro there's no such sequence procedures like this ,we initiate then we closure, oh ohh sorry we forgot the announcement, thats not even a thing, i even disagree with ppl who is think there is ambiguity (terminology-wise) here in this rules not even alittle,thats because the rules started with initiate airspace closure, and then PM start to explain what is that mean, no room here for self-imaganation
