Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

ktn7 Jul 30

ramane bolojan tot anu

boloJEAN Jul 6

At least one Extraordinary Pariliamentary Session is required every month of the year!

Tony121 Jul 1

Ilie Bolojan is serving as interim Prime Minister until a new Prime Minister is nominated, approved by Parliament, and officially appointed. This means he remains the Prime Minister and is not removed from office simply because the government lost a vote of no confidence. A motion of no confidence is directed against the government as a whole, not the Prime Minister as an individual.

Tony121 Jul 1

I doubt it. The Dubai beaches comment was just a figure of speech. I don't know where they'll actually go. But It's very unlikely that any of them will care enough to come back from their vacations to vote. And even if there's an extraordinary parliamentary session, it's unlikely that anything will come of it. In my opinion, I think we'll continue with Bolojan as interim Prime Minister until the next elections.

probability Jul 1

thank you romania

boloJEAN Jun 30

you clearly dont understand how this works. there with be at least one extraordinary parliament session in july if not more. those dubai beaches are iran bombed anyway. dubai aint what it used to be!

willsom Jun 30

This distinction between the prime minister and the government is arbitrary and something you made up, the Romanian constitution literally defines "the government" as including the prime minister. In your interpretation, if the motion was against the government, and there was another market asking if a specific minister would be out by, would that one go to Yes then since they were dismissed?

Always-Right Jun 30

we had the debate before .. keep dreaming :)

Tony121 Jun 30

Very unlikely that all those people who will be on the beaches of Dubai will come back home to vote. Romanian parliamentarians aren't exactly known for their punctuality or unwavering devotion to the country. It's highly unlikely they'll cut short their vacation just to come back and vote.

boloJEAN Jun 30

Im stunned by your lack of judgement. Even if the parliament enters recess at any moment a EXTRAORDINARY PARLIAMENTARY SESSION can be convoked. Which it will probably next month!

Tony121 Jun 30

With the parliamentary recess starting in a few days, there won't be any new votes to appoint a new PM or government. Therefore, Bolojan will most likely remain interim Prime Minister at least until the fall.

Tony121 Jun 30

No, you've got it wrong. The motion was against the government; it doesn't directly affect the Prime Minister. Until a new PM is appointed, Bolojan will remain the interim Prime Minister. Also, with the parliamentary recess starting in a few days, there won't be any new votes to appoint a new PM or government. Therefore, Bolojan will most likely remain interim Prime Minister at least until the fall.

willsom Jun 30

"Romania's pro-European Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan was ousted Tuesday in a no confidence motion" - France 24 "Romanian PM Ilie Bolojan ousted in no-confidence vote" - BBC "Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan has been voted out of office by lawmakers." - DW

willsom Jun 30

I'm not arguing that he is already removed from his position, I'm arguing that his removal has already been announced which is what is relevant to the market. The fact of the matter is that the vote of no confidence dismissed the government and credible reporting on the matter agree that this vote is an announcement of his ousting/removal.

boloJEAN Jun 30

my dear willsom , i still am the prime minister of romania in a interim goverment. there was no removal or ousting. only the president can disolve my goverment but he wont. so i am afraid you lost this bet!

willsom Jun 29

Why is the vote of no confidence, which all contemporary sources called an "ousting" or "removal", insufficient to resolve the market to Yes? For the announcement clause of this market, I don't think it matters if he stays as an interm/caretaker PM, the fact remains his "removal" was announced on May 5. May 31, I understand to be a No because it was created AFTER the vote of no confidence was completed and announced, but the same is not true for June 30.

Nightwalkerx07 Jun 29

Thank you guys for an amazing pay :)

KVBA7 Jun 26

Can this go to 99.9 so I can roll onto new investments already like selling calls on SPY poly market for July 🤭

Always-Right Jun 26

E la Rules

sciuboi Jun 26

De unde ai citit asta? An announcement of Ilie Bolojan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect

sciuboi Jun 26

Va fi da

sciuboi Jun 26

not worth it, am fost ocupat cu altceva

Galthran Jun 26

ai inchis blogul de cand cu esecul de la primaria capitalei? ti-ai dat seama ca nu esti in masura sa faci analize politice, este?

KVBA7 Jun 26

:)

alexsky Jun 25

go get a job as journalist...

SygmaBoy Jun 25

Uită-te la criteriile marketului New Prime Minister of Romania: “to count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed by the President of Romania and receive a vote of confidence from Parliament, resulting in the official formation of a new government”. Așa că ți-aș răspunde da

DDD25 Jun 25

daca noul guvern e investit marti 30 iunie piata va fi da sau nu?

SygmaBoy Jun 25

Pentru mine este același lucru dacă câștigă una sau cealaltă parte. Uitați-vă la pozițiile mele. Relatez doar faptele. Ne vedem marți

KVBA7 Jun 25

Too late sir im sorry

SygmaBoy Jun 25

S-a anunțat acum că Nicușor se va întoarce sâmbătă în Polonia. Nu cred că mâine îl va lăsa pe Nawrocki în gol. Este clar că ne îndreptăm spre o procedură accelerată

SygmaBoy Jun 25

Ar fi trebuit să rămână până duminică, dar cică și-a scurtat vizita și mâine se întoarce. Cred că vrea să accelereze lucrurile ca să avem guvern înainte de închiderea sesiunii parlamentare. Am cumpărat și eu yes la preț bun. Băieții fac guverne peste noapte

wearesobackchat Jun 25

doamne dă-i sănătate domnului nawrocki

sciuboi Jun 25

Acolo ramane, il incuie nawrocki in beci

wearesobackchat Jun 25

si când se întoarce?

SygmaBoy Jun 25

Nicușor left for Poland :)

fuxy Jun 24

add 31 august

fuxy Jun 23

add 31 july

KVBA7 Jun 23

Yuppiii is so screwed.. oof sorry bro

dante321 Jun 23

go ahead and dispute the resolution if you feeling strong on your position.

SmokedAlien Jun 23

I have nothing to do with jurisprudence, but I got eyes enabling me to read the following: The term of office of the Prime Minister ends by: 1. resignation on his own initiative 2. dismissal following a motion of censure 3. loss of electoral rights following a conviction 4. incompatibility with the office 5. death 6. expiration of the legislature's term The Parliament may dismiss a sitting Prime Minister and his Cabinet by adopting a motion of censure against the Government. After the adoption of a motion of censure, the Prime Minister and his Cabinet are officially dismissed, and the President must appoint a person to form a new Government. Since the 1989 Revolution, five prime ministers have been dismissed following the adoption of a motion of censure: Emil Boc, Mihai Răzvan Unguenu, Sorin Grindeanu, Viorica Dăncilă and Florin Cîțu.

SmokedAlien Jun 23

Why is it specified "regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect" then ? Why do you need the last of the effects (cease of Interim period) from the list of multiple effects, all of them being already present except this last one and when no effects are needed according to the requirement ? Why do you care about the probable intention of the creator of this market, instead of his actual words ? According to the Romanian law his PM mandate ended instantly when the motion of no confidence passed and the President had 30 days to appoint an Interim PM. When the vote of confidence for the new PM will happen should be irrelevant for determining if Bolo ceased to be a legitimate/mandated PM. As far as I know the President didn't appointed him as Interim explicitly neither, so he's not only not a legitimate/mandated PM anymore, but he's also an illegitimate Interim PM. You're just pulling extra requirements for the resolution of this flawed market out of your arse basically. Also you say that Bolo as Interim PM is technically the same thing as actual PM with a valid mandate, which is just wrong on so many levels, but would you say the same thing if someone else would have appointed as Interim ? Are a King and a Regent the same thing to you ? The failure to enforce the contract then appeal the resolution before 31 May, due to misunderstandings/lack of attention to details, doesn't change anything, except that the ones that bought YES before that got scammed.

Nightwalkerx07 Jun 23

Therefore, if the same standard is applied consistently, the June market should also remain unresolved until one of two things happens: Bolojan is replaced by another Prime Minister who takes office; or Bolojan formally resigns and stops serving as Prime Minister altogether. Until then, he remains the Prime Minister of Romania in a caretaker capacity, exactly as he was when the previous market resolved No. The facts on the ground have not changed: there is still no new Prime Minister, and Bolojan is still the person occupying the office.

Nightwalkerx07 Jun 23

Another important point is consistency with how the market has already been interpreted. The May 31 market resolved to No even though Bolojan was already serving in the exact same caretaker/interim capacity that he is serving in today. Nothing material has changed regarding his status. He was the caretaker Prime Minister then, and he remains the caretaker Prime Minister now. If the market interpreters believed that becoming a caretaker Prime Minister meant he had already "ceased to be Prime Minister," then the May 31 market should have resolved Yes. It did not. Instead, the market effectively treated caretaker Prime Minister as still being Prime Minister. That interpretation makes sense. A caretaker Prime Minister is not a former Prime Minister. He still occupies the office, leads the government, and remains the country's head of government until a successor is appointed and sworn in. The office has not become vacant, and no replacement has taken over.

Nightwalkerx07 Jun 23

he market asks whether Ilie Bolojan "ceases to be Prime Minister." The strongest interpretation of that phrase is whether he stops being the individual occupying the office of Prime Minister. As of now, he has not been replaced. Romania still recognizes him as the head of government in a caretaker capacity, meaning he remains Prime Minister until a successor takes office. The clause regarding "resignation/removal" also does not automatically prove a Yes resolution. That clause is best understood as applying when a resignation or removal actually results in the individual leaving the office of Prime Minister. If a government falls but the same person remains in office as caretaker Prime Minister pending the appointment of a successor, then there is a strong argument that the person has not yet ceased to be Prime Minister for purposes of the market. Put another way: if Bolojan had truly ceased to be Prime Minister already, there would necessarily be someone else serving as Prime Minister. There is not. Romania currently has one Prime Minister, and that is Ilie Bolojan, albeit in a caretaker capacity. Therefore, until a new Prime Minister is appointed and takes over the office, the argument that Bolojan has already ceased to be Prime Minister is far from clear and may be inconsistent with the ordinary meaning of the office.

SygmaBoy Jun 23

Ai și tu dreptate, dar m-am cam săturat să citesc numai aberații

bagsbunny Jun 23

a vote of no confidence is neither a removal of the PM, nor his resignation. You can infer the removal of the gov. means the removal of the PM, but we play by the dumb and vague rules of the bet, therefore Bolojan is still PM, regardless if he's interim or not. Nobody revoked him and he didn't resign, that's what matters.

SygmaBoy Jun 23

The Romanian Constitution does not say that. You would do well to go back and read my comments on this market from a month ago. And if you give me a private contact, I’ll even send you my PhD dissertation in constitutional law :)

Always-Right Jun 23

What would happen if Bolojan is reelected (I know it is a long shot given how the Supreme Court interprets the motion to depose the cabinet)? Would he be a third PM after the initial mandate + interim? You are overanalysing - the prediction is called "Romanian PM Bolojan out by". Is he out?

Always-Right Jun 23

Iti pierzi vremea cu el

Nightwalkerx07 Jun 23

The market asks whether Ilie Bolojan "ceases to be Prime Minister." The strongest interpretation of that phrase is whether he stops being the individual occupying the office of Prime Minister. As of now, he has not been replaced. Romania still recognizes him as the head of government in a caretaker capacity, meaning he remains Prime Minister until a successor takes office. The clause regarding "resignation/removal" also does not automatically prove a Yes resolution. That clause is best understood as applying when a resignation or removal actually results in the individual leaving the office of Prime Minister. If a government falls but the same person remains in office as caretaker Prime Minister pending the appointment of a successor, then there is a strong argument that the person has not yet ceased to be Prime Minister for purposes of the market. Put another way: if Bolojan had truly ceased to be Prime Minister already, there would necessarily be someone else serving as Prime Minister. There is not. Romania currently has one Prime Minister, and that is Ilie Bolojan, albeit in a caretaker capacity. Therefore, until a new Prime Minister is appointed and takes over the office, the argument that Bolojan has already ceased to be Prime Minister is far from clear and may be inconsistent with the ordinary meaning of the office.