Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Geopolitics

Eventcmtla1nmf05jkmv015d7gqiun

Closes in

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

24H VOLUME

$276.7K

LIQUIDITY

$276.7K

BALANCE

Resolves according to the official outcome source for this event.

Comments (13)

Milin-dc Jul 13

no, a no ser de que traten de controlar algún territorio por un tiempo

One-step-closer Jun 21

Tal vez ocurra algo en Bolivia o Cuba, pero no estoy seguro de si una operación especial se cataloga como invasión.

opp22 Mar 6

2 months old but as of now not vey compelling

64MGX75VLQ Mar 4

of course it is

Dynamit3 Mar 4

i just want to point out, brazil is not a Latin American country

DontTrustMe Mar 1

This market is just a proxy for a US military intervention in Cuba or people have something else in mind? Venezuela has already been "dealt with" and I think a ground operation in Mexico is completely unrealistic.

RealMrBeast Feb 3

Same whales, same playbook ArmageddonRewardsBilly appears as a dominant holder across multiple political markets, continuously followed by the same wallets, including alliswell and CrazyB1-chX0X0. They enter late during disputes or final review and trigger abrupt price flips from 0-1% to 99-100% without new factual evidence. This is coordination, not price discovery. The final price reflects who can coordinate the most capital at the end, not reality. Warning: Everyone, please stop betting if you see these whales participating until Polymarket has an official response.