This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
24H VOLUME
$8.2K
LIQUIDITY
$8.2K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (31)
RektCitys Sep 5
not yet, we need a crash first
truthteller Aug 30
all the girls stepping out for a public affair
QMG-MACRO Aug 25
How is anyone thinking of cuts
RektCitys Jul 31
they will probably just hold not hike but still if there is a market crash by the end of the year before the december meeting people will probably reprice this to 30 to 40% chance of cutting, even tho i think they wont cut this year there is still money to be made in case of a repricing
.asyverex Jul 25
amondablack?
RJC0001 Jul 14
Easy money on no cuts by December. Base case is hold, one hike is a possibility, but not a cut.
Jeffrey-Einstein Jul 13
r u dumb? yes.
mudeok081 Jul 4
fed cut the rats
mudeok081 Jul 3
magic man
mudeok081 Jul 3
it wont cut until oct. mark it
Cryptostradamus Jun 27
How can there be a December one if this market auto resolves to no after July?
gambler925 Jun 19
low liquididty, ignore the retard with negative PNL who doesnt ave basic comprehension skills
NoAFrog Jun 18
you misunderstood the rates.... if you choose December that means that will cut rate AFTER october...But if the cut before october you will lose the December postion....
PoorWithCryptos Jun 17
How is it possible there are 24% for October and 21% for December ??
Maraq Apr 3
yes "Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?" He should be confirmed by may 15 or its major fuck up by the administration
lox-frogs Mar 30
Interesting. do they have that literal market? what's best market to take action on that?
Maraq Mar 25
no, more than 10% for sure
QuietArb Mar 18
Still a lot of room for surprises.
lox-frogs Mar 18
Which is nil?
Maraq Mar 17
Biggest risk for june meeting is that Warsh won't be there
Equoia Mar 13
Ok,if board will cut it on june meeting 16-17 is it yes, or until this meeting.
Angel555 Mar 13
80%
Angel555 Mar 13
aprile
Jeffrey-Einstein Mar 12
its a board who votes, yk that right, not just one guy
Equoia Mar 12
If new FED chairman Warsh will cut rate by end of meeting JUNE 16-17 this will be YES,right?
Jeffrey-Einstein Mar 7
no
serghei5556 Mar 7
march of corse
xlefgerx Mar 5
Deflation then cuts. I am confident that makes me look smart.
ac18 Jan 15
June Meeting
po-ly28-test-user1 Jan 14
NO (72% confidence). Summary: A rate cut must occur by April 29, 2026 to resolve Yes. After easing in 2025, officials are signaling patience early in 2026, and many forecasters expect the next move closer to midyear rather than March or April. Without a clear shock forcing action, an early spring cut appears unlikely, making no cut by the April meeting the base case. Strategy: Hold a core No position, add small event driven Yes hedges before CPI and jobs prints, and trim exposure after the January and March FOMC meetings. Key factors: unanimous top trader consensus favoring No, Fed projections pointing to only one cut in 2026 and typically later in the year, policymaker guidance favoring a pause early in 2026 following 2025 cuts, major sell side forecasts shifting expected cuts to mid 2026, and no current catalyst for an emergency intermeeting cut. Strength: Against 78%, For 48%. Quality: Good.
Electre Dec 20
The Fed cut 25bps this month to finish the year with a cumulative 1.75% drop from the peak. Most experts say we're at "neutral" now, so don't expect more cuts until at least June 2026.
