This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
24H VOLUME
$10.1K
LIQUIDITY
$10.1K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (23)
igliberg Jul 12
i have heard that France is "burining"
0x3E4a072Bf427421A34a9b085c0A8796c7Da7DCed-1730836150436 Jul 4
Hansen et all believe this year will be number 1.
exmateriae Jun 27
Berkeley now gives 2.5% to "1"
0x4C6A68AD49C44da012c760893267EEcB135997BE-1775679106556 Jun 24
6 or lower
0x4C6A68AD49C44da012c760893267EEcB135997BE-1775679106556 Jun 17
6
exmateriae Jun 9
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-1766507216051 May 27
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
studmuffin6969 May 22
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
Climatologist May 8
Seems fairly priced
0x3E4a072Bf427421A34a9b085c0A8796c7Da7DCed-1730836150436 May 8
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
Pasun4ik Mar 17
haaaa
DYANA41800 Feb 23
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
Gennedy Feb 10
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
Eia Jan 11
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
Zwicky Jan 1
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
TESTENAOMEXA Dec 31
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
Roro22 Dec 31
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
Zwicky Dec 30
Why second and fourth has around 40% but third one has 6%. This doesn't make sense to me.
igliberg Dec 26
hell warm
0xf35jsv80u3nos0uvsd Dec 18
go 2026
0xfEb06176A8dFA79C180B78C1A80e37DEb24290Eb-1748280124761 Dec 9
Lol
nxsu Dec 2
Brother you are the only comment
ChainPunkTrader Nov 29
if you actually look at wallet activity instead of comments you see a different picture
