This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Comments (21)
JoPower 9h ago
I was wrong. There was indeed someone either unaware or bold enough to do this. Jensen Huang.
LevantLeverage Sep 5
this could be the end of humanity
Hot-Skull Sep 4
It’s crazy how well OpenAI managed to keep the way Astra was presented era agi so consistent across all their employees
JoPower Sep 3
Left alone, OpenAI might officially declare AGI in the near future. Or maybe Brockman's comments would be enough for UMA to resolve the market to yes. But in the same day, Bernie Sanders floated banning Super Intelligence outright. You can call it ASI, or AGI. But no AI leader would be stupid enough now to declare AGI and face the brunt of political backlash. Thus, they might never declare.
Eia Aug 27
Yes, for this market it is. This is an announcement market for OpenAI. If they announce that they have an internal AGI, the market will resolve Yes. Doesnt actually have to be AGI, or be proven to be, they just need to say it. And they will, they need the buzz to stay relevant, so high probability they will.
tbkboss Aug 27
Is AGI = Altman's Genius Idea? Is it agi cause he says so?
Eia Aug 27
Chief research officer Mark Chen estimated OpenAI is “80% of the way” to AGI. Brockman said that viewed from two years in the future, this may be remembered as the moment AGI was created.
Eia Aug 27
The Times: "Altman told me that OpenAI was “not quite yet” there, but that by the end of the year the company would have an internal system he would call AGI."
Brovadana Aug 7
Don't bet on markets if you don't even understand the basic reality behind them. Whether AGI is achieved will always be debatable. Some will say it is true, some will say it is not.
0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 27
I'd be cautious here, these openAI scammers tend to lie a lot, so they can announce this even if it's not true
matteorenzi May 5
its not about AGI creation, its about announcement, which is very different nowdays
princessbubblegum Apr 30
Half way there
gamehasyou Apr 29
I would say this is a freeroll for NO. If AGI really comes this website and money wouldn’t mean anything
GomesUSA Mar 23
NVIDIA annouced they achieved AGI, now the next's like OpenAI will follow. 100% free money..
GomesUSA Mar 23
Nvidia announced, no the next's will follow
jkfld34 Mar 3
Anyone who pays taxes does, yes.
chessbot Feb 1
Hahahaha
0x35f14AB200A22423B3CC6317AE2B269552CF9b46-1765574944722 Jan 28
We already have AGI
StrategicAdvisor Jan 16
Feels unlikely. The term 'AGI' feels quite unfashionable now in 2026. Also, Sam Altman has expressed doubts of the utility of the term, and OpenAI and Microsoft have signed new agreements saying that OpenAI can't unilaterally declare that they achieved AGI without it being vetted by a panel of experts. In any case, OpenAI's main goal now is profitability.
kevtp Oct 29
Would make the odds much more reliable if this was included in the 4% annual payout program for long duration markets
chessbot Oct 28
Most free 19% return I've seen so far. However, waiting for a year for this to resolve will be painful...
