This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to formally recognize Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995, “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia, which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement, is an example of a qualifying agreement. An official unilateral pledge by Ukraine formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized Ukrainian territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution even if not part of an agreement with Russia. The April 19, 2013, Brussels Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, in which Serbia recognized Kosovo’s de facto administration but did not formally grant de jure recognition, would not be considered a qualifying agreement under this market, as this market requires formal recognition of sovereignty rather than acknowledgment of administrative control. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
24H VOLUME
$92.5K
LIQUIDITY
$92.5K
BALANCE
$0
Comments (50)
0x885bA142eA9b71C13802558240eB7D45E263eCd8-1759269514343 Aug 16
*Putin: ruzzia never attack anyone. He's a biggest lier in the world
butterbrot Jun 28
They havent recognized anything in 2022-2025 they certainly wont in 2026 with better funding and munitions than ever
Voidofhype May 9
*PUTIN: I THINK THE UKRAINE CONFLICT IS COMING TO AN END Any end to the war will include new land claims based (in part) on battlefield front lines. 12c for this market compared to 40c for peace deal before 2027 makes this an easy choice. *PUTIN: I HOPE THE IRAN CONFLICT WILL END AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
GautengWolf Apr 24
I think there’s a cleaner path here that avoids all the messy constitutional and institutional hurdles of formally “ceding” territory. Imagine a deal where Ukraine **formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea**, but frames it as part of a **time-bound or conditional arrangement** (e.g. 50–100 years, linked to a broader settlement or future review). You’re not rewriting the entire Ukrainian constitution around territorial loss in a permanent sense — you’re structuring it as a **legal recognition within a negotiated framework**. From this market’s perspective, that should still resolve **Yes**. The rules don’t require permanence, they require **formal recognition**. So even if it’s embedded in a transitional or conditional agreement, once Ukraine makes that legal acknowledgment, the condition is met. In other words, the market is about **de jure recognition**, not about how politically or constitutionally “final” the arrangement feels in practice.
CryptoLox Apr 17
Crimea is Russia
Master42 Mar 13
ah, so you're just a russian nazi bitch, now it all makes sense
Master42 Mar 13
that is the silliest thing I've read in quite a long time. You glorification of the "paper bear" nazi russia is naive at best
Zalypensky Mar 12
XOXOL=PIDARAS
Zalypensky Mar 12
So, how did it go? Did Russia lose, and the clown? Is it spring already? RUSSIA WILL NEVER lose to anyone; it's simply impossible.
Snow-White Jan 23
BROKE-ASS UKRONAZI FILTH, hahahaha, go die for your beliefs like Adolf, COWARDLY LITTLE NAZI!
Isidare Jan 7
The land's ownership is unknown, but the glory has always belonged to Ukraine.
ArialBlack Jan 4
Zelenskyy: We have neither legal nor moral right to cede territory
betpro3 Dec 29
Only North Korea has recognised the newly occupied territories as Russia and only 13 countries recognise Russian soverieignty over Crimea.
ChainPunkTrader Dec 17
saw the flow shift 2 days before odds moved, alerts dont miss
Floop Dec 11
Russia will lose this war this winter but Putin can not sign a peace deal without making some gains for his supporters. Therefor a symbolic area of land offered to Putin will make peace more likely. Undervalued.
mvp99 Dec 3
Shhh....don't spook them
0x21ab476e230a8Dc925305f7F7E7f57706c92B73B-1762980990274 Nov 16
you make me laugh :)
VatnikPride Nov 15
Sounds good to me: democracy and all those Western values, unlike the current oppression of minorities.
ZephyrNoir Nov 5
Ukraine's hypothetical recognition of Russian sovereignty over its regions by late 2026 would shatter NATO's eastern bulwark and ignite a cascade of separatist demands from the Baltics to the Black Sea.
RooseveltSkerrit Nov 4
Ukraine rejects Russian sovereignty claims over its territory amid ongoing war.
marqumax Oct 2
or people hedging against what they consider bad news
BridgetJones Sep 24
People betting YES on this are delusional pro-russians.
iLoveGPT Sep 15
Ukraine is Finished
iLoveGPT Sep 15
Zelensky gonna capitulate all this territories
slavesdontspeak Aug 27
wow, such an expert here XD
Beyond-Truth Aug 26
this will prob not resolve or or will resolve into no, look at kosovo,
hehexdd Aug 19
Yes, since Crimea is still considered ukrainian territory by the UN.
MagicEightBall Aug 19
room temp. iq
tacticalanalysis Aug 19
Would that also include recognizing Crimea as Russian territory?
migga Aug 18
zelensky will deny, trump weaponizes denial, zelensky gtfo (elections/revolution), peace
buyrightbake Aug 18
Zelensky [link removed] - “Ukrainians did not give up Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv after 2022.” Look at what is absent
buyrightbake Aug 17
All that’s left is to recognize it!
hehexdd Aug 17
"Ukraine won’t give up territory Russia hasn’t captured, Zelenskyy says", in other words, Ukraine will give up territory Russia has captured. [link removed]
graphtheory Aug 17
Market notification tracker and AI Profile Analyzer TG @PolymarketWalletBot
soft.caramel Aug 17
Trump is an impotent pedo clown, his dick is only big enough to rape little kids
migga Aug 13
[link removed]
migga Aug 13
bid daddy Trump or smal d*ck eurpoors ?
buyrightbake Aug 9
Then why’d you dump?
BuckMySalls Aug 9
i didnt hear no bell
Poli.carpo Aug 8
Puntin won’t accept anything that is not formalised at this point. He’s never been in such a dominant position (I mean, Ukraine would have to rely on the EU only)
pixls Jul 10
Does it really fucking matter? Pm will just: [link removed]
jz3610137 Jul 9
???
jz3610137 Jul 9
ok?
ErorUSSER Jun 21
strong strong
ErorUSSER Jun 21
strong strong my friend
ErorUSSER Jun 21
strong strong
buyrightbake Jun 21
You’re right that those are their two options
SkyWhisperer Jun 14
There's more chance that Ukraine will cease to exist than that it will recognize russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory. You don't understand how much this is important for Ukrainians.
LegaliseFinland Apr 23
"We will never recognize the occupation of Crimea." - Minister of Economy of Ukraine [link removed]
LegaliseFinland Apr 17
No Ukrainian wants this.
